Tesla, NIO, and Nvidia walk into Wednesday...

🌅 Today's Morning Call

S&P Futures 7,530.75 ▼ -1.50 (-0.02%)	Nasdaq Futures 30,364.00 ▼ -102.75 (-0.34%)	Dow Futures 52,514.00 ▲ +15.00 (+0.03%)
10Y Treasury 4.42% ▲ +0.04%	US Dollar 101.42 ▲ +0.09 (+0.09%)	Bitcoin $58,410 ▼ -$113 (-0.19%)

Good morning! Wednesday, July 1st is here, and the first trading day of Q3 is rolling in with a mixed bag of futures and a handful of stories worth your full attention. Tech is feeling a little soft this morning while the Dow manages to stay barely in the green. From EV delivery numbers to a grocery store shakeup to Nvidia still searching for solid ground, today's session has plenty of threads to pull. Here's what you need to know before the opening bell.

👀 What to Watch Today

Today kicks off the second half of 2026, which means portfolio rebalancing flows could add some noise to otherwise routine trading. Institutional money managers often reshuffle allocations at the start of a new quarter, so expect some choppiness that may not reflect any single headline. Keep an eye on sector rotation as the day unfolds.

On the economic calendar, ISM Manufacturing data for June is due this morning and could add color to the Federal Reserve's current read on the economy. Treasury yields are already ticking higher across the board, with the 10-year sitting at 4.42% and the 30-year at 4.90%. Any upside surprise in manufacturing data could push yields further and put additional pressure on growth stocks.

Tesla (TSLA) delivery figures for Q2 are expected to land any day now, and the market is bracing for a wide range of outcomes. Estimates span from under 400,000 units to nearly 470,000, which is an unusually wide spread. That uncertainty alone makes TSLA a stock to watch closely today.

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🌏 Overnight Recap

Overnight in Asia, markets were broadly cautious as investors processed the latest round of EV delivery data out of China. NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng collectively delivered 111,618 vehicles in June, up 16% year over year and their strongest monthly growth since March. Despite the impressive numbers, NIO (NIO) is trading lower in pre-market, which tells you something about how high expectations already are baked in.

In Europe, markets opened relatively flat as traders adjusted to rising global yields and a slightly stronger U.S. dollar. The DXY is sitting at 101.42 this morning, up modestly, which tends to create a headwind for multinational earnings and commodities. Oil and gold were both trading near flat overnight, offering no major macro surprises heading into the U.S. open.

The broader overnight tone is one of cautious consolidation rather than fear. No major geopolitical flareups, no surprise central bank moves. Just a market taking a measured breath at the start of a new quarter.

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📊 Pre-Market Movers

NIO (NIO) is sliding in pre-market despite reporting its best monthly delivery growth since March, part of a trio that includes Li Auto and XPeng delivering over 111,000 combined vehicles in June. The 16% year-over-year jump sounds great on paper, but the market had apparently priced in even more. This is a reminder that strong fundamentals do not always equal strong price action, at least not on the day of the report.

General Mills (GIS) is getting a lift this morning after beating fourth-quarter profit and sales estimates. The Cheerios maker benefited from more consumers cooking at home rather than dining out, a trend that continues to quietly support pantry staple names. GIS could be a relative bright spot in an otherwise mixed session.

Nvidia (NVDA) remains the stock everyone is watching without a clear catalyst this morning. It is hovering near the $200 support level after a recent pullback, and the Nasdaq futures being down about 0.34% is not helping the setup. A decisive move in either direction from NVDA today could carry outsized influence on the broader tech tape.

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🔍 Today's Watchlist

1. TSLA: Q2 delivery results expected imminently with estimates ranging from 400K to 470K units. The spread is the story.
2. KR: Kroger's $1.65B Giant Eagle acquisition is fresh news. Watch for analyst reactions and how the stock digests the deal.
3. NVDA: Still testing support near $200. A hold or break of that level could set the tone for the broader tech sector today.
4. Treasury yields: 10-year at 4.42% and climbing. ISM Manufacturing data this morning could push rates higher and pressure growth names.
5. NIO and Chinese EV names: Strong June deliveries but stocks are selling off. Classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news setup worth monitoring.

🎯 The Morning Playbook

The first trading day of Q3 is rarely a straight line, and today looks like it will live up to that reputation. With futures mixed, yields rising, and a handful of high-profile stories hitting at once, the temptation will be to chase every move. The better play is to identify your two or three key names and let the market come to you.

Kroger (KR) and the grocery sector deserve a closer look today. A $1.65 billion acquisition of Giant Eagle is a meaningful move for a company that just walked away from the failed Albertsons merger. Management clearly still has a consolidation appetite, and the competitive dynamics across food retail are shifting. Pair that with General Mills (GIS) beating estimates and you have a consumer staples story quietly building underneath the EV and tech headlines.

As Q3 opens, the question is simple: does the market have enough fundamental support to push higher from here, or does the weight of elevated yields and stretched valuations start to matter more? Today will not answer that question definitively, but it will give you plenty of clues. Pay attention to where money flows when the dust settles this afternoon.

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