🌅 Today's Morning Call
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S&P Futures
7,594.75
▼ -29.25 (-0.38%)
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Nasdaq Futures
29,429.50
▼ -308.25 (-1.04%)
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Dow Futures
52,974.00
▲ +15.00 (+0.03%)
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10Y Treasury
4.55%
▼ -0.04%
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US Dollar
100.53
▲ +0.02 (+0.02%)
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Bitcoin
$64,106
▼ -$606 (-0.94%)
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Data as of 8:07 AM ET
Good morning! Thursday is shaping up to be a tale of two markets. The Dow is barely clinging to the green while Nasdaq futures are off more than 1%, signaling tech is about to take another punch to the jaw. From a cholesterol-busting pill to chip stock carnage and a brewing standoff at the Strait of Hormuz, there is no shortage of action to unpack. Here is what is moving this morning.
👀 What to Watch Today
Earnings season is rolling along, and the July 16 session brings several names worth tracking closely. Keep your eye on how sentiment around the broader semiconductor space holds up after the beatdown Micron has absorbed over the past month. Any additional commentary from chip-adjacent companies could ripple across the sector.On the macro side, Treasury yields are drifting lower this morning, with the 10-year sitting at 4.55% and the 5-year pulling back to 4.26%. That softer yield environment could offer some cushion for rate-sensitive sectors like utilities and real estate, even as growth stocks face headwinds.
Geopolitics will also demand attention today. The Trump administration's threat to strike Iranian infrastructure and Iran's pointed warning about the Strait of Hormuz being a red line has energy traders watching crude prices carefully. Any escalation there could light a fire under oil names and drag on transport and airline stocks simultaneously.
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🌏 Overnight Recap
Overseas, the mood was cautious. Wipro (WIT) reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter revenue overnight, blaming client hesitation on non-essential tech spending amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. That is not exactly a rousing endorsement for global IT demand, and it adds another layer of concern on top of already jittery tech sentiment heading into Thursday's open.In China, the spotlight is on CXMT's massive $8.6 billion IPO, which is set to distribute roughly $41 million in fees among six Chinese investment banks. The sheer size of the deal signals Beijing is still pushing hard to build out domestic semiconductor capacity, a dynamic that continues to pressure U.S. chipmakers competing for the same market ground.
Meanwhile, the new 25% U.S. tariff on most Brazilian goods is set to take effect next week, with a potential additional 12.5% duty on the table over forced-labor concerns. Emerging market funds with Brazil exposure, along with commodity importers sourcing from the region, will want to model out the impact before the tariffs land.
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📊 Pre-Market Movers
Merck (MRK) is the standout on the positive side this morning after the FDA approved Lipfendra, the company's once-daily pill designed to lower cholesterol beyond what statins can achieve alone. This is a meaningful label win that opens up a broad patient population. Expect MRK to attract buying interest at the open as investors size up the commercial opportunity.Micron (MU) continues to be the story nobody wants to own right now. With shares already down 20% over the last month and multiple headwinds stacking up, including demand concerns, pricing pressure, and competitive noise from China's chipmakers, pre-market sentiment around MU remains fragile. Watch for any bounce attempts to face aggressive selling.
Wipro (WIT) could see pressure after its Q1 revenue miss, which landed overnight. The company pointed to clients pulling back on discretionary IT spending, a theme that could bleed into sentiment around other mid-tier IT services names when the U.S. session kicks off.
🔍 Today's Watchlist
- MU: Micron is down 20% over the past month. Watch for any fresh analyst commentary or sector read-throughs that could accelerate or stabilize the slide today.
- MRK: The FDA just approved Merck's Lipfendra cholesterol pill. This is a meaningful pipeline win. Watch how the market prices in the long-term revenue opportunity at Thursday's open.
- Energy sector: Iran's Hormuz warning and Trump's strike threats are live risks. Crude oil and energy names like XOM and CVX deserve a spot on your screen today.
- Treasury yields: The 10-year at 4.55% and 5-year at 4.26% are both pulling back. A continued slide could shift rotational flows toward defensives and income plays intraday.
- Brazil tariff fallout: The 25% levy hits next week. Watch agricultural commodities, Brazilian ADRs, and any U.S. companies with heavy Brazilian import exposure for early positioning moves.
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🎯 The Morning Playbook
The playbook for Thursday is simple: respect the divergence. The Dow holding flat while Nasdaq drops 1% tells you this is not a broad risk-off move. It is targeted pressure on growth and tech, and that distinction matters when deciding where to position your attention.The Merck approval gives healthcare a genuine catalyst to work with, and softening Treasury yields could provide a tailwind for dividend-oriented sectors. If you are hunting for relative strength in a mixed tape, those two corners of the market deserve a closer look than the momentum names getting dragged lower.
The geopolitical wildcard around Iran and the new Brazil tariffs are the variables hardest to model, which means sizing positions carefully and staying nimble makes more sense than swinging big today. Smart trading is often about what you choose not to chase as much as what you pull the trigger on.
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