Markets take the holiday off. Here's your prep kit.

🌅 Today's Morning Call

S&P Futures 7,552.25 ▼ -2.25 (-0.03%)	Nasdaq Futures 29,905.75 ▼ -265.50 (-0.88%)	Dow Futures 53,108.00 ▲ +388.00 (+0.74%)
10Y Treasury 4.49% ▲ +0.01%	US Dollar 100.77 ▼ -0.60 (-0.59%)	Bitcoin $62,060 ▲ +$576 (+0.94%)

Good morning! Happy Fourth of July weekend. U.S. stock and bond markets are dark today as America fires up the grill, but the financial world never fully clocks out. Futures are sending a split signal this morning, with the Dow holding green while Nasdaq slides nearly a full percent, and there's plenty of macro noise to digest before markets reopen next week. Here's what you need to know before the fireworks start.

👀 What to Watch Today

With U.S. equity and bond markets closed for Independence Day, the session is less about executing trades and more about setting your positioning for when the opening bell rings again Monday morning. Futures are trading on limited hours, so treat any moves you see with appropriate skepticism around liquidity and volume.

The macro calendar thins out considerably over the holiday stretch, but that doesn't mean nothing matters. Keep an eye on any weekend geopolitical headlines coming out of the NATO summit in Ankara, where European leaders are sitting down with representatives aligned with the Trump administration to iron out friction over Iran policy and the ongoing Greenland dispute. Any sharp turns in that dialogue over the long weekend could show up fast in Monday's futures.

Also worth tracking: energy markets don't fully sleep even when equities do. The extreme heat wave gripping the central and eastern U.S. is pushing wholesale electricity prices higher and stressing power grid capacity right through the Fourth of July holiday. If that heat dome persists into next week, utilities and energy producers could see renewed attention when trading resumes.

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🌏 Overnight Recap

Asian markets wrapped up their Friday sessions in mixed fashion, with Japanese equities drifting modestly lower as the yen held relatively steady against a softer dollar. The DXY dollar index is sitting at 100.77 this morning, down 0.60 on the session, which generally provides a tailwind for multinational earnings and commodity prices.

European markets were in positive territory through their morning session, with traders there watching the same NATO dynamics as everyone else ahead of next week's Ankara gathering. Treasury yields ticked slightly higher on the long end, with the 10-year at 4.49 percent and the 30-year touching 4.99 percent, a level that continues to command attention from anyone with rate-sensitive exposure.

Bitcoin is providing a small bright spot in the overnight session, trading up 0.94 percent to around 62,060 dollars. Crypto tends to attract more attention during traditional market holidays when it becomes one of the few liquid risk assets still moving, so any momentum there is worth noting even if it doesn't translate directly to equities come Monday.

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📊 Pre-Market Movers

MSFT is the name grabbing headlines this morning after a detailed new filing offered an unusually transparent look at the company's offshore tax structure and use of tax haven jurisdictions. The story is drawing attention not because of any immediate financial impact, but because a new European directive will soon require all major U.S. multinationals to provide similar disclosures. That means names like AAPL, GOOGL, and META could find themselves in the same spotlight shortly.

On the macro side, the Nasdaq futures drag of 0.88 percent is largely a reflection of broader risk-off sentiment rather than any single company-specific catalyst. Tech has been sensitive to Treasury yield moves lately, and with the 30-year inching toward five percent, growth-oriented names are feeling the gravitational pull.

Gas prices easing ahead of the Fourth of July weekend is a quiet positive for consumer discretionary names. More spending money in drivers' pockets during a major travel weekend is a mild tailwind for companies like travel platforms, restaurant chains, and retailers that benefit from increased consumer mobility.

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🔍 Today's Watchlist

1. MSFT: New European tax disclosure rules are forcing Microsoft's hand on offshore tax strategies. Watch for similar filings from other large-cap tech names as the EU directive takes hold.
2. Utilities and grid operators: The heat wave stress-testing U.S. power infrastructure could translate into earnings pressure or upside for names in the electricity generation and distribution space.
3. NATO summit in Ankara next week: Any breakthrough or breakdown between European allies and the Trump administration on Iran and Greenland could move defense and energy stocks fast.
4. 30-Year Treasury at 4.99 percent: One more bad auction or a hot inflation print and the long bond could crack five percent, a level that tends to rattle rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities.
5. Bitcoin above 62,000: Crypto is the only major liquid market moving today. Watch whether the weekend momentum holds or fades as institutional flow returns Monday.

🎯 The Morning Playbook

Today is a planning day, not a trading day. The most productive thing you can do with markets closed is audit your positioning and make sure you have a clear game plan for Monday. The split futures signal, Dow green and Nasdaq red, suggests the rotation from growth into value and dividend-paying names that has been building recently is still very much alive.

The NATO summit, the heat wave's economic ripple effects, and Microsoft's tax disclosure story all point toward themes that will matter beyond just this week. Geopolitical risk, energy infrastructure vulnerability, and corporate tax policy are not short-term trades. They are medium-term storylines that patient investors can position around thoughtfully.

Enjoy the holiday. Watch the fireworks. But keep one eye on what the overseas session does Sunday night, because that will be your first real signal for how Monday opens. Sometimes the quietest trading days are the ones that tell you the most about where conviction actually lives.

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