Markets Closed for Good Friday (But Futures Are Up)

🌅 Today's Morning Call

S&P Futures 6,607.75 ▲ +70.50 (+1.08%)	Nasdaq Futures 24,151.00 ▲ +329.50 (+1.38%)	Dow Futures 46,657.00 ▲ +337.00 (+0.73%)
10Y Treasury 4.31% ▼ -0.01%	US Dollar 99.98 ▼ -0.02 (-0.02%)	Bitcoin $67,016 ▲ +$127 (+0.19%)

Data as of 8:08 AM ET

Good morning! Futures are pointing north this Good Friday morning, but there's a catch: U.S. stock and bond markets are taking the day off. That means no opening bell, no closing bell, just a rare moment to catch your breath and plot your next move. While equities rest, the stories shaping next week's action are already taking form.

👀 What to Watch Today

With markets closed for the holiday, today's focus shifts to positioning and preparation. Futures are trading on limited hours, showing solid gains across the board with the Nasdaq leading the charge up 1.38%. Treasury yields are holding steady in the low 4% range, and the dollar is barely budging.

The big story brewing for next week centers on semiconductor policy and AI demand. Washington is tightening the screws on chip equipment exports to China, potentially impacting ASML and other toolmakers. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) is expected to report a sixfold profit surge when results drop, driven entirely by AI-fueled chip demand.

President Trump's budget proposal hits Friday, and while markets won't react in real-time, the details could set the tone for Monday's open. Keep an eye on any spending cuts targeting economic agencies, which has been a recurring theme from this administration.

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🌏 Overnight Recap

Global markets are painting a mixed picture heading into the long weekend. Asian bourses rallied on the Samsung profit preview, with chip stocks catching a bid on enthusiasm around AI spending. The South Korean tech giant's expected record quarterly profit is validating the thesis that AI infrastructure spend isn't slowing down anytime soon.

European markets are also closed for Good Friday, leaving futures and crypto to carry the overnight action. Bitcoin is hovering around $67,000, up slightly but treading water in a familiar range. The muted dollar action suggests currency traders are taking a wait-and-see approach before next week's data dump.

The geopolitical chess match over semiconductor technology continues to dominate headlines. Bipartisan lawmakers are pushing new export restrictions on chipmaking equipment to China, targeting tools from companies like ASML. This isn't just noise, it's a structural shift in how the U.S. approaches tech competition with Beijing.

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📊 Pre-Market Movers

Pre-market action is light given the holiday, but futures tell the story. Nasdaq futures are outpacing the broader market, up 1.38% as tech sentiment gets a boost from the Samsung profit beat preview. Semiconductor names should catch a bid when trading resumes, with the AI narrative getting another validation point.

Polaris Industries (PII) might see some attention after getting tangled up in a United Airlines story about premium cabin changes. The ticker reference appears to be a mixup, United is a private company, but any confusion in travel and leisure names could create volatility.

ASML is the name to watch when markets reopen. The Dutch chipmaking equipment giant sits at the center of the export restriction debate. If the proposed legislation gains traction, it could force ASML to further limit sales of advanced lithography systems to Chinese customers, impacting revenue forecasts.

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🔍 Today's Watchlist

Semiconductor policy shifts and ASML export restriction proposals
Samsung's record profit expectations driving chip sector optimism
Trump budget details Friday for clues on economic agency funding
Treasury yields holding steady near 4.3% on the 10-year
Bitcoin consolidation around $67K ahead of next directional move

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Trump is about to cut Iran off at the knees. One tiny North Carolina town supplies 80% of the world's most critical semiconductor material. Business Insider calls it "crucial to make chips that power everything from smartphones to data centers." When Trump bans exports, Iran's tech infrastructure crumbles — and every chipmaker on Earth is forced to relocate to U.S. soil. Morgan Stanley estimates the reshoring boom triggers a $10 trillion transformation. A handful of U.S. companies stand to capture most of it. Full details here .

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🎯 The Morning Playbook

Use this market holiday to reset and reassess. The semiconductor story is evolving from a pure demand narrative to a geopolitical chess match. Companies with China exposure need extra scrutiny, while those benefiting from AI buildouts stateside are riding tailwinds.

When markets reopen next week, watch how chip stocks digest the dual forces of record profits and tightening export rules. Samsung's results prove demand is real, but policy risk is rising. That creates opportunity for nimble traders but requires you to do the homework today.

Enjoy the break, but keep your watchlist updated. The best trades often set up when everyone else is on vacation. Next week comes fast, and the gap between prepared and unprepared is where alpha lives.

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