Mixed Futures, Big Deals, and a GSK Gut Punch

🌅 Today's Morning Call

S&P Futures 7,518.25 ▼ -7.50 (-0.10%)	Nasdaq Futures 28,741.75 ▼ -180.50 (-0.62%)	Dow Futures 52,519.00 ▲ +67.00 (+0.13%)
10Y Treasury 4.57% ▲ +0.02%	US Dollar 100.80 ▲ +0.04 (+0.04%)	Bitcoin $63,213 ▼ -$557 (-0.87%)

Good morning! Friday, July 17, and markets are giving you a split personality to close out the week. The Dow is nudging higher while the Nasdaq is showing some pre-market weakness, down 0.62%, as Treasury yields creep up and the dollar holds steady. There is plenty of corporate news to chew through before the opening bell, from a blockbuster Airbus order out of China to a clinical trial miss at GSK. Here is what you need to know before the session kicks off.

👀 What to Watch Today

The big macro story to keep in mind today is the steady grind higher in yields. The 10-year Treasury is sitting at 4.57% and the 30-year has pushed above 5.10%, which is keeping pressure on rate-sensitive growth names. That explains a good chunk of the Nasdaq's underperformance in pre-market trading, and it is worth watching whether yields stabilize once the cash session opens.

On the corporate calendar, BP (BP) and ConocoPhillips (COP) are expected to make formal investment announcements at the U.S.-Iraq Business Summit in Washington today. These are expected to be multi-billion dollar commitments tied to Iraq's energy sector as the U.S. looks to reduce Iran's regional energy footprint. That geopolitical angle gives both names a macro tailwind heading into the session.

Danske Bank (DNSKF) is also in the mix after posting a Q2 beat and raising its full-year profit outlook this morning. European banking strength is worth monitoring as a broader signal for global financial sector sentiment, especially with U.S. bank earnings still fresh in the rearview.

Elon Musk, Larry Fink & Brian Armstrong are ALL Piling into This [ad]

🌏 Overnight Recap

Overnight, the big headline out of Asia was Air China (AIRYY) and its unit Shenzhen Airlines confirming an order for 55 Airbus jets at a list price of $12.4 billion. This is a meaningful win for Airbus (EADSY, EADSF) and signals that Chinese carriers are back in fleet-expansion mode, prioritizing fuel-efficient aircraft. Boeing's absence from the deal is notable, though not surprising given the ongoing trade dynamics between the U.S. and China.

Also making noise was Telstra (TLGPY, TTRAF), where CEO Vicki Brady testified before an Australian Senate inquiry that last week's major network outage was caused by an undocumented software design change and a missed update. That kind of operational transparency can actually help sentiment around a stock, but it also raises questions about internal controls that management will need to address going forward.

Over in Stockholm, Volvo Cars (VLVCY, VLVLY) reported a second-quarter profit that came in lower compared to Q1, with the automaker pinning its recovery hopes on deliveries of its new EX90 electric model. EV execution risk remains real across the industry, and Volvo's numbers are a reminder that the transition is still a bumpy road for legacy automakers navigating a shifting demand environment.

The Socialists are at the gate [ad]

📊 Pre-Market Movers

GSK is the name to watch on the downside this morning after the pharma giant confirmed it is walking away from its experimental refractory chronic cough drug following a late-stage trial failure. Missing a primary endpoint in a Phase 3 study is never a good look, and the market tends to punish these decisively at the open. Respiratory pipeline setbacks hit hard because the market sizes for chronic cough treatments are significant.

On the upside, Airbus ADR shares (EADSY) have a clear fundamental catalyst with the Air China and Shenzhen Airlines order worth $12.4 billion. This is the kind of large-scale fleet deal that reinforces the long-term demand thesis for commercial aviation. Defense and aerospace names broadly could see sympathy interest as the session develops.

ConocoPhillips (COP) is one to watch quietly in pre-market as the Iraq investment story gets more airtime through the morning. Energy names have been sensitive to geopolitical positioning, and a visible commitment to Middle East production assets with U.S. government backing is a credible near-term catalyst for the stock.

THE MELT UP IS HERE [ad]

🔍 Today's Watchlist

1. GSK (GSK): Cough drug trial failure could weigh on shares. Watch for analyst downgrades or price target cuts through the morning session.
2. BP (BP) and COP (COP): Iraq investment announcements expected at the U.S.-Iraq Business Summit today. Headline risk is real and could move both names.
3. EADSY (Airbus ADR): $12.4 billion Chinese jet order is a strong catalyst. Watch for momentum continuation or a sell-the-news pullback.
4. 10-Year Treasury yield at 4.57%: If yields push higher through the session, growth and tech names could see additional pressure beyond current pre-market levels.
5. Shein IPO watch: Hong Kong listing committee approval is confirmed. No public ticker yet, but this development could ripple through fast-fashion and e-commerce comps.

🎯 The Morning Playbook

The overarching tone heading into Friday's session is cautious but not alarmed. Mixed futures with a resilient Dow and a softer Nasdaq tell a familiar 2026 story: defensive and dividend-heavy names are finding support while growth-sensitive tech continues to navigate a higher-for-longer yield environment. The 5-year Treasury hitting 4.28% is not screaming crisis, but it is keeping a lid on multiple expansion.

For active traders, the BP and ConocoPhillips Iraq summit announcements are the clearest event-driven trade of the day. If those investment figures come in at the higher end of expectations, energy could outperform into the close. GSK, meanwhile, is a name where the first move may not be the final move. Pipeline disappointments often stabilize once the initial selling pressure clears.

Going into the weekend, positioning matters. Bitcoin is slipping below $63,500 and the dollar is holding firm, which is a combination that tends to dampen risk appetite at the margins. Take your signals from yields early in the session and let the Iraq news flow give you a read on energy. Finish the week sharp.

AI has a power problem. One firm fixed it. [ad]