Goldman reports, Volkswagen stumbles, and BP faces heat

🌅 Today's Morning Call

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10Y Treasury 4.32% ▲ +0.02%	US Dollar 99.00 ▼ -0.01 (-0.01%)	Bitcoin $70,864 ▲ +$138 (+0.19%)

Good morning! Markets are starting the week in neutral, with S&P futures barely budging and tech showing a slight pulse while industrials lag. Goldman Sachs steps up to the earnings plate this morning, kicking off what could be a revealing bank earnings season. Meanwhile, European automakers are hitting speed bumps and energy giants are dodging shareholder arrows. Here's what's moving this morning.

👀 What to Watch Today

Goldman Sachs (GS) reports first-quarter earnings before the bell, with Wall Street expecting $16.49 per share on strong revenue. This marks the unofficial start of banking earnings season, and investors will be listening closely for commentary on deal flow, trading revenues, and the health of capital markets activity. Any surprises here could set the tone for how we think about the financial sector heading into the rest of earnings season.

Beyond Goldman, keep your eyes on Baker Hughes (BKR) after announcing it sold its Waygate Technologies unit to Sweden's Hexagon for $1.45 billion. The deal represents a strategic shift for the oilfield services provider, and the market will be digesting what this means for BKR's streamlined focus and capital allocation priorities.

The macro calendar is relatively light today, which means company-specific news and earnings commentary will likely drive individual stock moves. With futures showing a mixed picture, direction may not emerge until we see how Goldman's numbers land and what guidance the bank offers for the quarters ahead.

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🌏 Overnight Recap

European markets opened with caution as Volkswagen (VWAGY) reported a troubling 4% decline in global deliveries for the first quarter of 2026. The German automaker is getting squeezed in its two most important markets, China and the US, where demand continues to soften. This adds to growing concerns about the health of the global auto sector as electric vehicle competition intensifies and consumer spending shows signs of fatigue.

On a brighter note, UK fintech Wise posted impressive numbers ahead of its anticipated Nasdaq debut, with cross-border transaction volumes jumping 26% in Q4 to reach 49.4 billion pounds. The strong performance highlights continued momentum in the digital payments space, even as traditional banks face margin pressure. Investors are clearly still hungry for fintech growth stories with real traction.

Asian markets closed mixed overnight, with technology stocks showing resilience while industrials and materials lagged. The subdued tone reflects uncertainty around global growth prospects, particularly in China where economic data continues to disappoint. Treasury yields ticked up slightly across the curve, with the 10-year now sitting at 4.32%, suggesting bond markets aren't quite ready to price in rate cuts just yet.

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📊 Pre-Market Movers

Baker Hughes (BKR) is drawing attention in pre-market trading after offloading its Waygate Technologies business for $1.45 billion in cash. The industrial inspection and measurement unit is heading to Hexagon, and the deal should give BKR more flexibility to focus on its core oilfield services operations. Investors will be watching to see how management plans to deploy the proceeds, whether for buybacks, debt reduction, or strategic investments.

Volkswagen (VWAGY) is under pressure after reporting that Q1 2026 deliveries dropped 4% year-over-year, with particular weakness in China and the United States. The German auto giant is facing a perfect storm of slowing demand, intense EV competition, and market share losses in critical regions. This continues a tough stretch for legacy automakers trying to navigate the transition to electric vehicles while protecting profitability.

Keep an eye on BP as the energy giant heads into its annual general meeting facing shareholder backlash over its decision to reject a climate resolution. Two major proxy advisors have reportedly taken issue with the board's stance, setting up what could be a contentious vote. It's another reminder that ESG issues remain front and center for large-cap energy companies, even as oil prices stay elevated.

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🔍 Today's Watchlist

1. Goldman Sachs Q1 earnings report and management commentary on deal pipelines
2. Volkswagen's delivery decline and broader auto sector weakness signals
3. Baker Hughes strategic repositioning after $1.45B Waygate sale to Hexagon
4. BP annual meeting showdown over climate resolution rejection
5. Wise fintech momentum ahead of Nasdaq listing and cross-border payment trends

🎯 The Morning Playbook

Today's playbook centers on Goldman's earnings report and what it tells us about the banking sector's health coming out of Q1. Strong trading revenues and robust investment banking fees would signal that capital markets are thawing, which could lift the entire financial sector. Conversely, any disappointment or cautious guidance could weigh on bank stocks and raise questions about the strength of corporate activity.

Beyond financials, the Volkswagen delivery miss is worth noting as a potential canary in the coal mine for global consumer demand. When a major automaker sees volumes drop in both China and the US simultaneously, it's usually saying something about broader economic conditions. Pair that with the ongoing EV transition challenges, and traditional automakers may face a tougher 2026 than many expect.

The good news? We're still seeing pockets of genuine growth, as evidenced by Wise's impressive cross-border volume surge. Technology-enabled businesses with strong unit economics continue to find their footing, even in a mixed macro environment. Focus on quality, watch the earnings reports closely, and remember that stock-specific stories matter more than ever when the overall market lacks clear direction.

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