🌅 Today's Morning Call
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S&P Futures
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Nasdaq Futures
29,633.25
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Dow Futures
54,068.00
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10Y Treasury
4.67%
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US Dollar
99.88
▼ -0.08 (-0.08%)
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Bitcoin
$64,998
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👀 What to Watch Today
The biggest macro event of the day is the July jobs report, and it is the kind of number that can reshape the entire narrative around Federal Reserve rate policy in a single print. With the 10-year Treasury yield already nudging up to 4.67 percent and the 30-year sitting at 5.21 percent, a hotter-than-expected payroll number could push yields even higher and put pressure on rate-sensitive tech stocks despite the cheerful futures picture.On the earnings and corporate front, Wendy's (WEN) is a must-watch after the company cut its dividend and pulled full-year guidance entirely, with CEO Kirk Tanner acknowledging the chain is simply not meeting its potential. That is a significant admission, and traders will be parsing any turnaround details around menu changes and marketing strategy. Meanwhile, keep an eye on Boeing (BA) after the FAA ordered mandatory inspections of more than 400 Boeing 737 Max jets over potential structural cracks, a headline that will weigh on the stock heading into the open.
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Text Me the Alerts🌏 Overnight Recap
Overnight, European markets digested a notable banking story out of Italy. Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPSY) beat profit forecasts for the quarter and is actively exploring strategic alternatives to fend off a takeover bid from Intesa Sanpaolo (IITSF). The drama in European banking adds a layer of intrigue to the broader financial sector conversation, and it is worth tracking how U.S. bank stocks react to the ongoing consolidation theme playing out across the Atlantic.In the AI space, comments from Hugging Face CEO Clement Delangue earlier this week continued to ripple through the narrative, with his claim that China is winning the AI race generating pushback from analysts who argue the U.S. still holds meaningful advantages in frontier model development and chip infrastructure. That debate is keeping AI-adjacent names like Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) in focus. Separately, oil ticked modestly higher overnight as traders balanced potential progress in Middle East ceasefire talks against the uncertainty of this morning's jobs print, with energy ETFs like GUSH worth monitoring into the session.
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📊 Pre-Market Movers
Wendy's (WEN) is the most notable mover to watch in pre-market after management delivered a one-two punch of cutting the quarterly dividend and pulling full-year guidance. The stock was under pressure overnight, and with no clear timeline on the turnaround plan, expect elevated volatility at the open. Fast-food peers like McDonald's (MCD) and Restaurant Brands (QSR) may also see sympathy moves as the market reassesses the broader casual and quick-service dining environment amid weak U.S. foot traffic trends.Boeing (BA) is another name flashing caution this morning after the FAA ordered inspections of more than 400 Boeing 737 Max aircraft for possible cracks in a structural component. This is the kind of regulatory headline that tends to hit first and ask questions later. Airline operators flying heavy 737 Max fleets, including Southwest (LUV) and United (UAL), could see secondary pressure as investors game out potential groundings or delivery delays. On the brighter side, Airbus (EADSY) reported steady July deliveries and confirmed ongoing orders from China, which positions the European rival as a relative beneficiary of any continued Boeing uncertainty.
🔍 Today's Watchlist
- WEN: Wendy's dividend cut and guidance withdrawal signal deeper operational trouble. Watch for volume spikes and any analyst downgrades at the open.
- BA: FAA-mandated inspections of 400+ Boeing 737 Max jets for structural cracks could rattle shares and ripple into airline stocks like AAL and DAL.
- Jobs Report Reaction: July nonfarm payrolls will set the tone for the entire session. A strong print could dampen rate-cut hopes and pressure growth stocks.
- Treasury Yields: The 10-year at 4.67 percent and rising is a headwind for valuations. Watch for any yield spike post-jobs data to pressure the Nasdaq.
- NVDA and AI Names: The U.S. vs. China AI race narrative is heating up again. Any policy headlines from Trump's mining CEO summit could also lift materials and defense-adjacent plays.
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🎯 The Morning Playbook
Today is a session where patience at the open is probably your best tool. The jobs report will land before most traders have finished their first cup of coffee, and the initial reaction in futures and bond markets could be sharp in either direction. Rather than chasing the first move, let the dust settle on the payroll print and watch how yields respond before making any bold positioning decisions.On the stock-specific side, the Boeing and Wendy's stories are both worth monitoring but for very different reasons. Boeing is a headline risk play where the FAA news may already be partially priced in by the open, while Wendy's feels like a story with more downside discovery ahead as the market digests just how serious the operational challenges are. The AI narrative and the Trump administration's push to secure critical minerals for defense supply chains are both longer-term themes worth adding to your watchlist even if they do not move markets dramatically today.
Fridays in August can surprise you. Go in with a plan, size accordingly, and remember that the jobs report is a data point, not a verdict.
📰 Further Reading
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